Week 11 · Saturday, November 14, 2026
AT North Carolina
TBD · line not posted
Kenan Stadium
LOUISVILLENORTH CAROLINA
9.90 #36SP+ projection#60 3.00
35.40 #19SP+ offense#88 23.90
25.70 #66SP+ defense#34 21.20
0.10SP+ special teams0.30
9.84 #36FPI#47 6.71
#48Strength of schedule#16
35%Returning production28%
740.0Talent composite 2026767.9
9–42025 record4–8
4–42025 conference2–6
9.402025 expected wins5.10
1749.0Elo1320.0
5–32025 at home2–4
3–12025 on the road2–4
85%Returning rushing PPA54%
18%Returning receiving PPA33%
The series
5–3
8 meetings · 1988–2017
last met 2017 · W 47–35
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
3–32–2 in conf.
39.5 scored · 27.7 allowed · +11.8 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
wk 5L28–31at NC State
wk 6W44–20vs Florida State
North Carolina
3–21–1 in conf.
23.4 scored · 19 allowed · +4.4 per game
wk 1W15–10n TCU
wk 2W35–3vs East Tennessee State
wk 3L20–28at Clemson
wk 5L26–37vs Notre Dame
wk 6W21–17at Pittsburgh
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 6 and 5 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs North Carolina defense
49% · p83Success ratep27 · 44%
Louisville edge — 56 percentile points
1.42 · p93Explosivenessp94 · 1.03
0.34 · p93PPA / playp57 · 0.06
Louisville edge — 36 percentile points
4.20 · p60Points / scoring oppp48 · 3.38
2.99 · p36Line yardsp14 · 3.29
50% · p84Rushing successp17 · 47%
Louisville edge — 67 percentile points
49% · p78Passing successp39 · 42%
Louisville edge — 39 percentile points
North Carolina offense vs Louisville defense
47% · p72Success ratep40 · 42%
North Carolina edge — 32 percentile points
1.09 · p6Explosivenessp47 · 1.25
Louisville edge — 41 percentile points
0.13 · p43PPA / playp30 · 0.15
4.45 · p76Points / scoring oppp49 · 3.37
3.83 · p98Line yardsp22 · 3.17
North Carolina edge — 76 percentile points
50% · p84Rushing successp32 · 44%
North Carolina edge — 52 percentile points
45% · p54Passing successp51 · 40%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileNORTH CAROLINA
0.493 · p83Off. success ratep72 · 0.472
1.417 · p93Off. explosivenessp6 · 1.093
4.2 · p60Finishing (pts/opp)p76 · 4.45
0.418 · p40Def. success ratep27 · 0.438
1.248 · p47Def. explosivenessp94 · 1.034
0.14 · p28Havocp18 · 0.13
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
19882017