Weekly projections · v1.15 · trained through 2025

The Model

A margin-and-total model run against the whole 2026 slate, then compared with what the books actually posted. It calls 72.2% of games straight up in backtest — 70.7% for an Elo baseline.

Week

Games

week 6

Mean gap

3.7

points off the line

Flagged O/U

3+ point edge

Graded

271

results in

Louisville’s Games

How the model’s last call landed, and where it stands on the next one.

Last time out · week 6

W 44–20 vs Florida State

model called Louisville by 3.9 · winner ✓ · margin off by 20.1

Next up · week 7

at Syracuse

not priced yet — the new week’s sheet drops before kickoff

Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET

The Slate

This slate, graded: 38–20 on winners · ATS 27–31 · O/U 23–35 · 58 of 58 final

Every game the model priced this week. “Book” restates the posted line for whoever the model likes, so the two numbers read straight across — a negative one means the book has the model’s pick as the underdog. The bar shows the gap between them, ticked at the line.

Southern Miss @ TroyLEANF 34–55✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

7.064%Troy -9.5O/U 51.5 · under by 3.9

Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw StateLEANF 27–26✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

7.871%Jacksonville State -3O/U 48.5 · under by 0.0

New Mexico State @ Florida InternationalLEANF 3–22✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

8.870%Florida International -7O/U 46.5 · under by 0.2

Sam Houston @ LibertySTRONGF 3–35✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

17.588%Liberty -13.5O/U 52.5 · under by 2.3

Missouri State @ Western KentuckyTOSSUPF 13–34✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

1.054%Missouri State -1.5O/U 56.5 · under by 0.7

South Florida @ UTSATOSSUPF 24–31✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

0.150%UTSA -5.5O/U 49.5 · over by 0.1

South Alabama @ Arkansas StateTOSSUPF 56–49✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

1.855%Arkansas State -3O/U 60.5 · under by 4.5

Florida State @ LouisvilleTOSSUPF 20–44✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

3.959%Louisville -4O/U 60.5 · under by 2.5

Iowa @ WashingtonTOSSUPF 41–24✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

0.959%Washington -3O/U 41.5 · over by 0.1

Washington State @ Utah StateTOSSUPF 16–17✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

1.347%Utah State -4O/U 44.5 · under by 1.6

Wyoming @ San José StateLEANF 16–13✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

3.661%San José State -4.5O/U 42.5 · over by 2.4

Iowa State @ BYUSTRONGF 10–24✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

17.691%BYU -11.5O/U 46.5 · over by 0.9

Texas A&M @ MissouriLEANF 6–27✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

6.362%Missouri -4.5O/U 50.5 · under by 4.1

Arizona @ West VirginiaLEANF 52–31✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

7.869%Arizona -3.5O/U 61.5 · under by 2.5

UCF @ Oklahoma StateTOSSUPF 28–42✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

1.658%Oklahoma State -10.5O/U 53.5 · under by 9.2

North Carolina @ PittsburghSOLIDF 21–17✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

10.073%Pittsburgh -3.5O/U 47.5 · under by 1.7

Wake Forest @ NC StateTOSSUPF 38–14✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

0.356%Wake Forest -4O/U 56.5 · under by 0.9

Indiana @ NebraskaSOLIDF 20–17✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

7.274%Indiana -9.5O/U 48.5 · over by 6.3

Tulane @ ArmyTOSSUPF 17–20✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

0.857%Army -5.5O/U 48.5 · under by 1.2

Sacramento State @ Bowling GreenTOSSUPF 10–38✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

3.758%Bowling Green -9.5O/U 43.5 · under by 0.6

Ball State @ NorthwesternSTRONGF 14–45✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

35.599%Northwestern -34.5O/U 53.5 · under by 2.5

South Carolina @ FloridaLEANF 38–19✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

5.262%Florida -10.5O/U 59.5 · under by 6.3

Old Dominion @ App StateSOLIDF 10–3✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

10.872%App State -8.5O/U 45.5 · over by 1.5

Miami (OH) @ MassachusettsLEANF 20–19✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

9.465%Miami (OH) -6O/U 44.5 · over by 0.4

Texas vs OklahomaSOLIDF 24–27✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

9.778%Texas -7.5O/U 40.5 · under by 2.4

Ole Miss @ VanderbiltLEANF 52–17✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

4.162%Ole Miss -9.5O/U 54.5 · over by 4.4

Houston @ Kansas StateTOSSUPF 35–16✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

0.858%Kansas State -2.5O/U 55.5 · under by 0.1

Duke @ Georgia TechLEANF 25–28✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

7.064%Duke -4.5O/U 45.5 · over by 8.4

Stanford @ Notre DameSTRONGF 7–58✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

43.5100%Notre Dame -40.5O/U 55.5 · under by 0.8

Virginia Tech @ CaliforniaSOLIDF 20–25✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

10.576%Virginia Tech -11.5O/U 51.5 · over by 5.1

Illinois @ Michigan StateLEANF 38–37✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

4.863%Illinois -2.5O/U 48.5 · under by 1.0

UCLA @ OregonSTRONGF 17–15✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

13.890%Oregon -10O/U 57.5 · under by 1.3

Charlotte @ North TexasSTRONGF 10–50✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

30.397%North Texas -27.5O/U 58.5 · under by 2.3

Tulsa @ NavyTOSSUPF 26–34✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

3.052%Navy -3O/U 47.5 · under by 1.7

Eastern Michigan @ AkronLEANF 25–23✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

4.770%Eastern Michigan -4.5O/U 51.5 · under by 0.4

Buffalo @ ToledoSTRONGF 23–8✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

20.292%Toledo -18.5O/U 54.5 · over by 1.6

Central Michigan @ OhioLEANF 14–31✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

10.571%Ohio -2.5O/U 45.5 · under by 0.0

Kent State @ Western MichiganSTRONGF 7–38✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

17.390%Western Michigan -13.5O/U 43.5 · under by 2.9

UConn @ TempleTOSSUPF 34–20✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

4.955%Temple -3.5O/U 55.5 · under by 1.3

Rice @ East CarolinaSOLIDF 12–28✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

17.185%East Carolina -10O/U 46.5 · over by 0.7

Tennessee @ ArkansasSTRONGF 24–17✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

18.788%Tennessee -13.5O/U 51.5 · over by 2.7

Maryland @ Ohio StateSTRONGF 16–45✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

35.799%Ohio State -31.5O/U 56.5 · under by 5.5

San Diego State @ Oregon StateSOLIDF 14–66✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

14.584%Oregon State -14.5O/U 52.5 · under by 6.3

LSU @ KentuckySOLIDF 34–35✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

10.176%LSU -9.5O/U 50.5 · under by 3.9

UAB @ MemphisSTRONGF 13–38✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

14.785%Memphis -15.5O/U 55.5 · under by 3.3

Nevada @ UTEPLEANF 30–13✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

5.171%Nevada -10O/U 48.5 · over by 2.3

North Dakota State @ UNLVTOSSUPF 7–13✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

3.153%North Dakota State -3O/U 47.5 · under by 1.0

Coastal Carolina @ MarshallLEANF 27–21✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✓

8.869%Marshall -4.5O/U 57.5 · under by 3.2

Georgia @ AlabamaTOSSUPF 20–17✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

3.852%Alabama -2.5O/U 51.5 · over by 1.9

Syracuse @ VirginiaTOSSUPF 25–28✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

3.160%Virginia -14O/U 49.5 · under by 1.6

USC @ Penn StateTOSSUPF 31–23✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

3.556%USC -1.5O/U 54.5 · under by 0.5

Air Force @ Northern IllinoisSOLIDF 28–7✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

6.476%Air Force -7O/U 48.5 · over by 1.0

James Madison @ Georgia SouthernSTRONGF 27–24✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

15.686%James Madison -7O/U 51.5 · over by 0.8

Louisiana @ Louisiana TechTOSSUPF 31–32✗ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

4.553%Louisiana Tech -3O/U 48.5 · under by 4.7

Minnesota @ PurdueSOLIDF 13–41✗ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

9.074%Minnesota -2.5O/U 48.5 · under by 0.0

Hawai'i @ Arizona StateSTRONGF 12–30✓ winner· ATS ✗· O/U ✗

26.694%Arizona State -20.5O/U 51.5 · over by 1.4

Kansas @ UtahSTRONGF 24–41✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✓

18.792%Utah -15.5O/U 49.5 · over by 6.0

Boise State @ Fresno StateSOLIDF 38–31✓ winner· ATS ✓· O/U ✗

8.273%Boise State -8.5O/U 48.5 · under by 2.1

Lines come from CollegeFootballData, not from the model file. 28 of 58 games are marked “line corrected”: the model file shipped a total that disagreed with the book by more than a point, and the book’s number is the one used here.