Week 10 · Saturday, November 7, 2026
AT Georgia Tech
TBD · line not posted
Bobby Dodd Stadium
LOUISVILLEGEORGIA TECH
9.90 #36SP+ projection#69 -0.10
35.40 #19SP+ offense#66 26.60
25.70 #66SP+ defense#76 26.90
0.10SP+ special teams0.20
9.84 #36FPI#71 -0.47
#48Strength of schedule#71
35%Returning production13%
740.0Talent composite 2026751.6
9–42025 record9–4
4–42025 conference6–2
9.402025 expected wins7.70
1749.0Elo1595.0
5–32025 at home5–1
3–12025 on the road4–1
85%Returning rushing PPA35%
18%Returning receiving PPA11%
The series
2–2
4 meetings · 2018–2024
last met 2024 · W 31–19
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
3–32–2 in conf.
39.5 scored · 27.7 allowed · +11.8 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
wk 5L28–31at NC State
wk 6W44–20vs Florida State
Georgia Tech
2–31–1 in conf.
27.2 scored · 25.8 allowed · +1.4 per game
wk 1L13–14vs Colorado
wk 2L24–45vs Tennessee
wk 3W44–11vs Mercer
wk 4L27–34at Stanford
wk 6W28–25vs Duke
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 6 and 5 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Georgia Tech defense
49% · p83Success ratep38 · 42%
Louisville edge — 45 percentile points
1.42 · p93Explosivenessp41 · 1.28
Louisville edge — 52 percentile points
0.34 · p93PPA / playp18 · 0.19
Louisville edge — 75 percentile points
4.20 · p60Points / scoring oppp38 · 3.65
2.99 · p36Line yardsp38 · 3.04
50% · p84Rushing successp20 · 47%
Louisville edge — 64 percentile points
49% · p78Passing successp74 · 37%
Georgia Tech offense vs Louisville defense
45% · p61Success ratep40 · 42%
1.25 · p47Explosivenessp47 · 1.25
0.16 · p50PPA / playp30 · 0.15
3.39 · p28Points / scoring oppp49 · 3.37
3.28 · p66Line yardsp22 · 3.17
Georgia Tech edge — 44 percentile points
47% · p64Rushing successp32 · 44%
Georgia Tech edge — 32 percentile points
45% · p52Passing successp51 · 40%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileGEORGIA TECH
0.493 · p83Off. success ratep61 · 0.453
1.417 · p93Off. explosivenessp47 · 1.245
4.2 · p60Finishing (pts/opp)p28 · 3.393
0.418 · p40Def. success ratep38 · 0.424
1.248 · p47Def. explosivenessp41 · 1.277
0.14 · p28Havocp51 · 0.16
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20182024