Week 13 · Saturday, November 28, 2026
AT #15Kentucky
TBD · line not posted
Louisville unranked · Kentucky #15 · AP Top 25 entering the game
Kroger Field
LOUISVILLE#15KENTUCKY
9.90 #36SP+ projection#44 8.00
35.40 #19SP+ offense#40 31.20
25.70 #66SP+ defense#47 23.10
0.10SP+ special teams-0.10
9.84 #36FPI#34 10.40
#48Strength of schedule#8
35%Returning production19%
740.0Talent composite 2026786.6
9–42025 record5–7
4–42025 conference2–6
9.402025 expected wins5.60
1749.0Elo1465.0
5–32025 at home4–3
3–12025 on the road1–4
85%Returning rushing PPA-9%
18%Returning receiving PPA35%
The series
17–17
34 meetings · 1915–2025
last met 2025 · W 41–0
streak: W2
full history →
Ratings are projections and move as the season plays out; the season-to-date numbers below are what has actually happened.
How They Got Here
2026 to date — every game either side has played.
Louisville
3–32–2 in conf.
39.5 scored · 27.7 allowed · +11.8 per game
wk 1L38–41n Ole Miss
wk 2W59–13vs Villanova
wk 3W41–31vs SMU
wk 4L27–30vs Wake Forest
wk 5L28–31at NC State
wk 6W44–20vs Florida State
Kentucky
5–13–1 in conf.
34.7 scored · 28 allowed · +6.7 per game
wk 1W45–13vs Youngstown State
wk 2L17–45vs Alabama
wk 3W31–21at Texas A&M
wk 4W45–21vs South Alabama
wk 5W35–34at South Carolina
wk 6W35–34vs LSU
Where The Game Is Won
Each offense against the defense it will actually face, both ranked as FBS percentiles so the bars are comparable. Longer attack bar against a shorter defend bar is the mismatch. 2026 numbers, 6 and 6 games in — small samples, read them lightly.
Louisville offense vs Kentucky defense
49% · p83Success ratep26 · 44%
Louisville edge — 57 percentile points
1.42 · p93Explosivenessp70 · 1.17
0.34 · p93PPA / playp59 · 0.06
Louisville edge — 34 percentile points
4.20 · p60Points / scoring oppp30 · 3.75
Louisville edge — 30 percentile points
2.99 · p36Line yardsp46 · 2.93
50% · p84Rushing successp25 · 45%
Louisville edge — 59 percentile points
49% · p78Passing successp22 · 45%
Louisville edge — 56 percentile points
Kentucky offense vs Louisville defense
51% · p92Success ratep40 · 42%
Kentucky edge — 52 percentile points
1.16 · p25Explosivenessp47 · 1.25
0.22 · p66PPA / playp30 · 0.15
Kentucky edge — 36 percentile points
4.50 · p78Points / scoring oppp49 · 3.37
3.38 · p73Line yardsp22 · 3.17
Kentucky edge — 51 percentile points
55% · p98Rushing successp32 · 44%
Kentucky edge — 66 percentile points
46% · p61Passing successp51 · 40%
2026, against the nation
LOUISVILLE2026 national percentileKENTUCKY
0.493 · p83Off. success ratep92 · 0.51
1.417 · p93Off. explosivenessp25 · 1.161
4.2 · p60Finishing (pts/opp)p78 · 4.5
0.418 · p40Def. success ratep26 · 0.443
1.248 · p47Def. explosivenessp70 · 1.168
0.14 · p28Havocp71 · 0.18
Two programs, five seasons
SP+ by season — the dashed leg is this year's preseason projection.
The series
Recent meetings, by margin
20132025